综合可持续性分析中心的博士生viviennereiner的一项研究强调了经济在极端气候变化下的脆弱性。 黑色夏季山火的影响svienne reiner解释了对2019-2020年澳大利亚“黑色夏季”山火的首次此类研究，结果显示，全国旅游业立即遭受了2美元的损失。 其更广泛的供应链总产量为80亿，全国近7300个工作岗位消失。 四年前的火灾导致该国许多地区的旅游业在圣诞节和新年旺季之前大范围关闭，造成1美元的损失。 旅游业直接损失70亿，引发供应链产量大幅下降。 “这些结果说明了未来的预期，不仅在澳大利亚，在其他易受气候变化影响的国家也是如此，”科学院综合可持续性分析中心的博士生、该研究的主要作者viviennereiner说。该研究发表在《灾害与气候变化经济学》上。 主要作者vivienne reiner。 悉尼环境研究所的reiner女士表示：“值得注意的是，我们的研究通过澳大利亚供应链衡量了旅游业的损失，但没有量化其他经济成本，例如农业或林业损失对供应链的影响，这些损失也受到了火灾的严重影响。”。 研究人员发现，虽然火灾对澳大利亚东海岸的影响最大，但旅游业损失的影响是全国性的，波及整个经济。 旅游业是澳大利亚重要的产业。 雷纳女士说：“在2019年火灾发生之前，统计数据显示，在农村地区，8%，即几乎每12人中就有一人从事与旅游业有关的工作。”。 “此外，旅游业是最大的出口，2018-19年，旅游服务的出口收入超过了天然气。 该研究的合著者之一、综合可持续性分析中心负责人、商学院附属机构arunimamalik副教授说：“与其他自然灾害相比，森林大火正在增加，而且由于气候变化，预计还会加剧，澳大利亚等国家将量化其经济影响作为常规做法的一部分，包括供应链溢出效应，这一点很重要。”。 合著者之一、isa物理学院的曼弗雷德·伦岑教授说：“尽管我们计算的损失只占国家经济产出的一小部分，但在全球变暖的影响下，澳大利亚作为原始目的地的声誉可能会受到永久性的损害，在我们的度假旺季，前往澳大利亚的人会减少。”。 研究显示，全国范围内的供应链受到了不同的影响，包括失业：新南威尔士州：3171个工作岗位维多利亚州：1430个工作岗位昆士兰：1499个工作岗位南澳大利亚州：516个工作岗位西澳大利亚州：479个工作岗位塔斯马尼亚州：13个工作岗位澳大利亚首都地区：110个工作岗位北部地区：75个工作岗位。 研究人员警告说，随着气候变化影响的加剧，澳大利亚经济可能面临进一步的损失。 雷纳表示：“作为亚太地区的一部分，澳大利亚旅游业可以从减缓气候变化中获益匪浅。亚太地区是世界上最容易发生灾害的地区。 就应对措施而言，像我们这样的研究也有助于指出供应链中可能需要社区和行业重建的热点。 “通过将整个供应链纳入我们的研究，使用投入产出分析，我们计算出总产出损失为2美元。 80亿美元，比已确定的直接损失增加了61%。 “教育相关旅行服务”加上“个人旅行（不包括教育）旅行服务”。 外交和贸易部，2020年注：旅游业被广泛定义为包括澳大利亚统计局在内的游客在一个地方的活动，而不是他们通常的环境，不到一年。 research你在这里吗？澳大利亚2019-20年黑色夏季丛林大火导致旅游业停摆的经济影响。 等。 （灾害与气候变化经济学）doi:10。 1007/s41885-024-00142-8这项研究是悉尼大学和昆士兰大学的合作。 声明作者声明没有相互竞争的利益。 这项研究部分由澳大利亚研究委员会和悉尼大学资助。 曼弗雷德·伦岑（manfredlenzen）通过其hwk奖学金获得了德国汉斯-维森夏夫特学院的资助。a study by phd student vivienne reiner from the centre of integrated sustainability analysis highlights economic vulnerabilities to extremes of climate change.impact of black summer bushfiresvivienne reiner explainsa first of its kind study of the 2019-2020 ‘black summer’ bushfires in australia has revealed that the tourism industry nationwide took an immediate hit of $2.8 billion in total output to its broader supply chains and almost 7300 jobs disappearing nationwide.the fires four years ago triggered widespread tourism shutdowns in many parts of the country in the lead up to the peak christmas and new year season, resulting in $1.7 billion direct losses to the tourism industry, which triggered the larger drop in supply chain output.“these results are an illustration of what can be expected in the future not only in australia, but in other nations that are vulnerable to climate-change driven disasters,” said vivienne reiner, a phd student with the centre for integrated sustainability analysis in the faculty of science and lead author of the study, published in economics of disasters and climate change.lead author vivienne reiner.“it’s important to note that our study, which measured tourism’s losses through australian supply chains, did not quantify other economic costs, such as the supply-chain impacts of losses from agriculture or forestry, which were also substantially impacted by the fires,” said ms reiner also of the sydney envirionment institute.while the fires had the biggest impact on australia’s east coast, the impact from tourism losses was national and felt across the economy, the researchers found.“tourism is a vital australian industry. before the fires that started in 2019, statistics showed that in rural areas 8 percent, or almost one in 12 people, were employed in jobs connected to the tourism industry,” ms reiner said. “as well, tourism is a top export, with travel services responsible for more export income than natural gas in 2018-19.”associate professor arunima malik, a co-author who heads the centre for integrated sustainability analysis and is also affiliated with the business school, said: “with bushfires increasing compared to other natural disasters and expected to intensify due to climate change, it is important for countries such as australia to quantify their economic impact as part of routine practice, including supply-chain spillovers.”co-author professor manfred lenzen, also with isa in the school of physics, said: “although the losses we calculated only represented a small fraction of the nation’s economic output, australia’s reputation as a pristine destination could become permanently damaged under global warming, with fewer people travelling within and to australia in our peak holiday season.”the research showed varied impact nationwide across the supply chain, including in job losses:new south wales: 3171 jobsvictoria: 1430 jobsqueensland: 1499 jobssouth australia: 516 jobswestern australia: 479 jobstasmania: 13 jobsaustralian capital territory: 110 jobsnorthern territory: 75 jobs.the researchers warn that the australian economy could face further losses as the effects from climate change increase.ms reiner said: “as part of the asia pacific – the world’s most disaster-prone region – australian tourism has a lot to gain from climate-change mitigation. in terms of responses, studies such as ours also help indicate hotspots in supply chains where rebuilding may be required in communities and industries.“by including the entire supply chain in our research, using input-output analysis, we calculated total output losses of $2.8 billion, which is a 61 percent increase on direct damages identified.” education-related travel services’ plus ‘personal travel (excl education) travel services’. department of foreign affairs and trade, 2020 note: tourism is broadly defined including by the australian bureau of statistics as encompassing travellers activities in a place, other than their usual environment, for less than one year.research‘wish you were here? the economic impact of the tourism shutdown from australia’s 2019-20 black summer bushfires’, reiner, v. et al. (economics of disaster and climate change) doi: 10.1007/s41885-024-00142-8the study was a collaboration between the university of sydney and university of queensland.declarationthe authors declare no competing interests. research was in part funded by the australian research council and the university of sydney. manfred lenzen receives funding from the hanse-wissenschaftkolleg in germany through its hwk fellowships.本文来源： 黑色夏季丛林大火使旅游供应链损失28亿美元
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