sarah g。 位于也门的萨那战略研究中心的全球冲突与发展教授兼非常驻研究员phillips解释了胡塞武装组织为何不停止对雷亚海域船只的袭击。 也门胡塞激进组织加大了对红海船只的攻击力度，表面上是为了回应其所称的以色列在加沙的“种族灭绝罪行”，美国和英国在上周进行了多次军事打击。 美国还将该组织重新列为全球恐怖组织。 希望这些打击能迫使与伊朗结盟的胡塞让步。 但不会。 除了完全停止以色列在加沙的战争和西方对以色列做法的180度支持之外，几乎没有什么能阻止胡塞人在可预见的未来改变路线。 这主要有三个原因，没有一个主要与伊朗的地区战略有关。 该组织已经在多年的空袭中幸存下来——第一个也是最明显的原因是胡塞运动，其政治派别被称为安萨尔·阿卜杜拉，在2015年至2022年与沙特领导和西方支持的联盟的战争中，已经经受住了多年的空袭。 在此之前，胡塞人在2004年至2010年间与也门中央政府进行了六次战争。 游击战对他们来说并不新鲜，骚扰他们海岸外的船只也不需要复杂的武器。 伴随着最近的大部分战争（目前处于不稳定的休战状态）而来的封锁也帮助胡塞人调整了他们从伊朗走私武器的网络，以及他们自己的国内武器生产。 因此，单靠空袭不太可能对其军事能力造成致命打击，而且几乎肯定会增加他们的战斗欲望。 这是因为他们第一次能够更有力地将自己的行动放在对抗美国和以色列的背景下，按照他们的口号：“上帝伟大，美国之死，以色列之死，犹太人之诅咒，伊斯兰之胜利。 “随着异议的增加，胡塞人发现‘准合法性’——他们不太可能被吓倒的第二个原因更重要，但不太为人所知，因为这是关于也门的国内政治。 胡塞人目前控制着也门的大部分地区，包括占也门人口70%左右的首都萨那。 这些地区的人民多年来一直遭受胡塞人的严重结构性暴力。 这包括：政治反对派和宗教少数群体的强迫失踪法外处决记者和处决平民，包括少数群体自2016年以来招募持有公共部门工资的儿童兵在人口稠密地区埋设地雷，狙击手袭击平民和使用围城战有系统地勒索企业和实施基于种姓的税收制度实施男性对女性的监护规定和粮食和水的武器化，包括将粮食援助转用于私人致富。 11月，也门人在也门萨那的一个境内流离失所者营地。 yahya-arhab/epa/aapit值得注意的是，沙特领导的联盟和国际公认的也门政府也被指控在也门犯下战争罪和严重侵犯人权，包括对平民和民用基础设施的无情轰炸。 据估计，在2015年开始的战争中，至少有15万人死于暴力，尽管收集这些数据的挑战相当大。 这还不包括成千上万死于可预防的饥饿和疾病的人。 胡塞当权者的行为使他们极不受欢迎。 由于胡塞人在他们控制的地区实施了复杂的镇压和邻里监视制度，异见人士是危险的。 但也门人去年开始走上街头，在伊布和被围困的塔伊兹市进行抗议。 9月26日，就在哈马斯袭击以色列南部和以色列轰炸加沙之前，也门人公然反抗当局。 在首都萨那的抗议活动中，他们庆祝了1962年推翻该国领导人扎伊迪伊玛目穆罕默德·巴德的革命周年，许多也门人声称胡塞人试图恢复的基于亲属关系的独裁统治也与他一起被推翻。 胡塞人（正确地）认为这是反对他们的示威，他们受到了震动。 大赦国际报道称，他们以“令人震惊的逮捕浪潮”和“严厉的武力展示”作为回应。 也门分析人士表示，在国内异议不断上升的背景下，胡塞人的行动和西方的报复给了该组织“准合法性”的礼物。 美国领导的罢工也证实了胡塞人要求批评者“闭嘴”的要求。 “同样重要的是，美国的打击可以促进胡塞的征兵工作。 这可能有助于他们再次试图夺取马里卜政府持有的油井，该组织需要这些油井才能在经济上保持可持续发展。 整个地区对西方的愤怒正在加剧胡塞人不太可能被空袭或恐怖分子的指认吓倒的第三个原因是，他们的行动表明了整个地区对以色列在加沙的战争的愤怒，迄今为止，这场战争已经夺去了25000名巴勒斯坦人的生命，以及西方几十年来对以色列在被占领的加沙和西岸政策的支持。 他们还利用了对西方更广泛政策的深刻不满，以及西方在民众变革行动面前强化不受欢迎政权的记录。 这包括向独裁政权出售武器和赋予政治合法性，以换取西方所认为的世界秩序的“稳定”。 然而，也门人敏锐地意识到，胡塞人的崛起和扩张是由同样的外部稳定推动的，这是以牺牲也门人确定当地问题解决方案的能力为代价的。 胡塞人把巴勒斯坦人民的防御集中在他们的行动中，找到了一种抹黑国内对手的方法——这在很大程度上是他们20年来一直没有做到的。 这将使他们更难下台，并可能使普通也门人面临进一步的暴力。 sarah g。 菲利普斯是全球冲突与发展教授、获奖作家和澳大利亚研究委员会未来研究员。 她的研究借鉴了多年的深入实地调查，重点关注对全球南方的国际干预、有关受冲突影响国家的知识生产和非国家治理，地理重点是中东和非洲。 这个故事首次发表在对话中，即为什么美国的袭击只会给胡塞人壮胆，而不会阻止他们对红海船只的袭击。 上图：osamah abdullahman/ap/aap。sarah g. phillips, professor of global conflict and development and non-resident fellow at the sanaa centre for strategic studies in yemen, explains why the houthi militant group will not stop their attacks on ships in the rea sea.as the houthi militant group in yemen ramps up its attacks on vessels in the red sea – ostensibly in response to what it calls israel’s “genocidal crimes” in gaza – the us and uk have responded with multiple military strikes in the last week. the us has also re-listed the group as a global terrorist organisation.the hope is these strikes will pressure the iran-aligned houthis to back down. it won’t, however. short of a complete halt to israel’s war in gaza and a 180-degree shift in western support for israel’s approach, there is little that will dissuade the houthis to change course in the foreseeable future.there are three main reasons for this, none of which are principally about iran’s regional strategy.the group has already survived years of airstrikesthe first, and most obvious, reason is the houthi movement, whose political wing is known as ansar allah, has already withstood years of airstrikes in its war with a saudi-led and western-backed coalition from 2015–2022.prior to this, the houthis fought six wars against the central yemeni government from 2004–2010. guerrilla warfare is not new to them, and harassing ships off their coast does not require sophisticated weapons.the blockade that accompanied much of the recent war (which is currently in a shaky truce) also helped the houthis to finetune their weapon smuggling networks from iran, as well as their own domestic weapon production.as a result, airstrikes alone are unlikely to deliver a knockout blow to their military capacity and will almost certainly increase their appetite for a fight.that is because they can – for the first time – more strongly frame their actions in the context of fighting against the us and israel, per their slogan: “god is great, death to america, death to israel, a curse upon the jews, victory to islam.”with dissent rising, the houthis have found ‘quasi-legitimacy’the second reason they are unlikely to be deterred is more important, but less understood, because it is about yemen’s domestic politics.the houthis currently control much of yemen, including the capital sanaa, which accounts for around 70% of the population. the people in these regions have been subjected to years of acute and structural violence by the houthis. this includes:the forced disappearances of political opponents and religious minoritiesthe extrajudicial killings of journalists and executions of civilians, including minorsthe recruitment of child soldierswithholding public sector salaries since 2016the laying of landmines in populated areas, sniper attacks on civilians and the use of siege warfarethe systematic extortion of businesses and implementation of a caste-based taxation systemthe implementation of male guardianship rules for womenand the weaponisation of food and water, including the diversion of food aid for private enrichment.yemenis at a camp for internally displaced people in sanaa, yemen, in november. yahya arhab/epa/aapit is important to note the saudi-led coalition and internationally recognised yemeni government have also been accused of committing war crimes and grave human rights violations in yemen, including the ruthless bombardment of civilians and civilian infrastructure.at least 150,000 people are estimated to have died violently in the war that began in 2015, though the challenges with collecting such data are considerable. this also does not include the many more thousands that have died from preventable starvation and disease.the behaviour of the houthis in power has made them deeply unpopular. dissent is dangerous due to the sophisticated system of repression and neighbourhood surveillance the houthis have imposed in the areas they control. but yemenis began taking to the street in protest last year anyway in ibb and the besieged city of ta’izz.then on september 26, just before hamas’ assault on southern israel and israel’s bombardment of gaza, yemenis defied the authorities in large numbers.in protests in the capital city of sanaa, they celebrated the anniversary of the 1962 revolution that ousted the country’s leader, the zaydi imam, mohammed al-badr – and with him, the kinship-based autocracy that many yemenis claim the houthis seek to reinstate.seeing this (rightly) as a demonstration against them, the houthis were shaken. amnesty international reported they responded with an “alarming wave of arrests” and “a draconian show of force.”against a background of rising dissent at home, the houthis’ actions and western retaliation have given the group the gift of “quasi-legitimacy,” according to yemeni analysts. the us-led strikes also give credence to the houthis’ demands that critics “shut their mouths.”and just as important, the us strikes can boost the houthis’ military recruitment efforts. and this could help them attempt to seize the government-held oil wells in marib again, which the group needs to become economically sustainable.anger is rising against the west across the regionthe third reason the houthis are unlikely to be deterred by airstrikes or a terrorist designation is that their actions articulate the wider region’s fury at israel’s war in gaza, which has so far claimed the lives of 25,000 palestinians, and the decades of western support for israel’s policies in occupied gaza and the west bank.they have also tapped into profound grievances about the west’s policies more generally and its record of reinforcing unpopular regimes in the face of popular action for change. this includes the selling of weapons and bestowing of political legitimacy to authoritarian regimes in exchange for what the west considers “stability” in the world order.yemenis are, however, keenly aware that the houthis’ rise and expansion was enabled by this same external push for stability, which came at the expense of yemenis’ ability to determine local solutions to local problems.by centring the defence of palestinians in their actions, the houthis have found a way to discredit their domestic opponents – something that has largely eluded them for 20 years. this will make them even harder to dislodge from power and will likely consign ordinary yemenis to further violence at their hands.sarah g. phillips is professor of global conflict and development, an award winning author, and an australian research council future fellow. her research draws from years of in-depth fieldwork, and focuses on international intervention in the global south, knowledge production about conflict-affected states, and non-state governance, with a geographic focus on the middle east and africa. this story was first published in the conversation as why us strikes will only embolden the houthis, not stop their attacks on ships in the red sea. top image: osamah abdulrahman/ap/aap.本文来源： 什么能阻止胡塞人？
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