衰退的概念本身就有争议的定义——那么我们如何知道自己是否处于衰退之中呢？luke hartigan博士在谈话中解释。 在过去的一年半里，利率的快速上升导致许多消费者在这个节日感到不那么快乐。 圣诞节前的支出可能会保持低迷，消费者比往年更注重预算。 疲软的消费前景让一些经济学家和媒体预测2024年可能出现经济衰退。 那么，什么是衰退？澳大利亚明年真正出现衰退的可能性有多大？什么是经济衰退？美国国家经济研究局（一家被广泛视为确定美国经济衰退权威的私人研究机构）将衰退定义为“经济活动的显著下降，这种下降在整个经济中蔓延，持续时间超过几个月。 “但这不仅仅是因为消费支出疲软（人们的支出比平时少了一点）。 在澳大利亚这样的开放型经济体中，消费下降可能意味着进口下降。 换句话说，消费疲软并不一定意味着我们在当地生产的商品和服务减少。 澳大利亚储备银行表示，经济衰退通常被定义为“持续的疲软或负增长期”。 但是我们所说的“持续的”是什么意思呢？媒体通常认为这意味着经济活动至少连续两个季度出现负增长，通常以国内生产总值（gdp）来衡量。 然而，国家经济研究局并没有使用四分之二规则。 它关注的不仅仅是国内生产。 在决定经济衰退是否发生时，它考察了各种不同的经济活动指标，如劳动力市场和工业生产的状况。 目前，人们似乎痴迷于寻找一些能表明经济衰退的指标。 最新的候选人是“人均gdp衰退”，在一些观察家和媒体中很受欢迎。 这意味着人均gdp下降。 这是一套更容易满足的标准，所以如果按照这个定义，经济衰退的可能性更大。 其他经济学家和观察人士回避关注经济增长，称失业率的变化是一个更好的衡量标准。 这些人认为，失业率越高，经济衰退就越明显。 然而，问题是，可能还有其他因素削弱了劳动力市场与经济活动之间的联系。 劳动力市场的制度变革就是一个例子。 例如，2008-2009年的活动减少表现为工作时间的减少，而不是失业率的增加，这在以前是不会发生的。 即使只是使用衰退的“技术”定义（四分之二规则）也有问题。 这是因为gdp等经济活动指标的数据修正问题。 随着新数据的出现，澳大利亚统计局经常修改gdp的历史值。 因此，一个时期的负季度增长结果可以在下一个时期由该局修正掉。 谨慎对待任何经济衰退的警告过去，从大约20世纪60年代到80年代，澳大利亚的经济衰退更为频繁。 但现在不太可能了。 这在一定程度上是因为自20世纪80年代中期以来，冲击的频率和波动性都有所下降。 20世纪80年代和90年代发生的一系列经济改革，如美元浮动和向更大的竞争开放经济，也有助于降低经济衰退的风险。 这些变化使澳大利亚更能抵御冲击。 我们应该对任何声称经济衰退即将到来的人持怀疑态度。 经济学家在预测经济衰退方面有着糟糕的记录。 要预测经济衰退，我们需要能够预测“转折点”，即经济活动从正增长转为负增长的时期，反之亦然。 这就要求我们预测未来的冲击，比如新冠肺炎的爆发，这很难始终如一地做到。 当一场非常大的冲击袭击我们时，澳大利亚总是有可能出现经济衰退。 但我们成功预测何时会发生的能力很差。 任何关于澳大利亚正处于衰退边缘的预测都应持谨慎态度。 本文由经济学院的lukehartigan博士撰写。 它最初发表在对话中。the very concept of a recession has contested definitions - so how do we know if we are in one? dr luke hartigan explains in the conversation.the rapid increase in interest rates over the past year and a half is causing many consumers to feel less than joyous this festive season.spending in the lead up to christmas is likely to remain subdued, with consumers more budget conscious than in previous years. the muted outlook for consumption has got some economists and media outlets predicting a possible recession in 2024.so, what is a recession and how likely is it australia will actually see one next year?what is a recession, anyway?the national bureau of economic research (a private research organisation widely seen as the authority for determining recessions in the us) defines recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.”but it is not all just about weak consumption expenditure (people spending a bit less money than usual). in an open economy like australia, a decline in consumption could just mean a decline in imports. in other words, weak consumption doesn’t necessarily mean we are producing less goods and services locally.the reserve bank of australia says a recession is often defined as “a sustained period of weak or negative growth.”but what do we mean by “sustained”? the media usually takes this to mean at least two consecutive quarters of negative growth in economic activity, typically measured by gross domestic product (gdp).however, the national bureau of economic research does not use a two-quarter rule. and it looks at more than just domestic production. it examines a variety of different measures of economic activity – such as conditions in the labour market and industrial production – when making its decision about whether a recession has occurred or not.currently, there seems to an obsession with finding some measure that will indicate a recession. the latest candidate, popular among some observers and media outlets, is a “per capita gdp recession”.this means a fall in gdp per person. that’s an easier set of criteria to meet, so if you go by this definition, a recession is more likely.other economists and observers shy away from focusing on economic growth, saying the change in the unemployment rate is a better measure. these people believe a higher unemployment rate provides a better sign a recession has occurred.the problem is, however, there can be other factors that weaken the link between the labour market and economic activity. institutional changes to the labour market is one example. the decline in activity in 2008–2009, for instance, showed up as a decline in hours worked rather than an increase in unemployment, something that would not have occurred previously.even just using the “technical” definition (the two quarter rule) of a recession has its problems too. this is because of the issue of data revisions to measures of economic activity such as gdp.the australian bureau of statistics frequently revises historical values of gdp as new data become available. as a result, a negative quarterly growth outcome in one period can be revised away by the bureau in a subsequent period.take any recession warnings with a grain of saltin the past, from about the 1960s to the 1980s, recessions were more frequent in australia. but they are less likely now. this is partly because the frequency and volatility of shocks has declined since the mid-1980s.a series of economic reforms that occurred in the 1980s and 1990s, such as floating the dollar and opening the economy up to greater competition, has also helped reduce the risk of recession. these changes have made australia more robust to shocks.we should be sceptical of anyone claiming a recession is just around the corner. economists have a terrible track record when it comes to predicting recessions.to forecast a recession, we need to be able predict “turning points” – periods when economic activity goes from positive growth to negative growth or vice versa. this requires us to predict future shocks, like the outbreak of covid, which is hard to do consistently.there will always be some probability of a recession in australia when a very large shock hits us. but our ability to successfully predict when one will occur is poor.any prediction australia is on the cusp of recession should be taken with a grain of salt.this article was written by dr luke hartigan from the school of economics. it was originally published in the conversation.本文来源： 一个严峻的圣诞节即将到来，但不要说经济衰退
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